A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
